“I work for clear channel and it has come to my attention this week that there will be layoffs and/or firings sometime next week.  Until yesterday I had no clue, however, my boss, a local sales manager, informed me that our program director heard rumblings from an online forum that there will be layoffs next week (week of 10/24/11).

I researched this and found this… http://insidemusicmedia.com/  I am not willing to pay to subscribe to find out how big the layoff will be and what regions will be affected.  I look at it like… more people will have to go hungry so Limbaugh can remain fat and happy on his $400 Million salary from clear channel.”

I guess we will find out if there is a massive layoff at Clear Channel sometime next week. This blog started in 2008 during the financial crisis. In fact, one of the most popular features on this site is the Great Depression 2.0 Layoff Tracker.

Unfortunately, I have a feeling that I need to start updating the layoff tracker more frequently in the next 6 to 12 months – in fact I believe we’re heading to another financial crisis soon, and it’s going to be worse than 2008.

Stay tuned. I have a lot in the plan to make this blog more informative, more useful, and more action oriented to help you navigate the difficult economic environment for years to come.

This will result in high inflation and high interest rate.

Is housing price going up or down during inflation? You might argue that during inflationary period prices of products and services will go up.

But, there are also downward pressure on the housing price. High interests make it harder for an average American to afford the monthly mortgage payment. Additionally, the job market is still pretty bad. As long as people are not feeling secure about their employment prospect, they would tend to rent instead of buy.

I could be wrong, but I think the housing price will go down further in the next two years due to higher interest rate and high unemployment. It might eventually increase again due to inflation, but we are not there yet.

Do you agree? I’d love to hear from you.

I actually felt worse than the 2008 financial crisis because I think we’re running out of options.

In 2008 the government was able to use stimulus packages to temporarily “stop the bleeding”. China was able to implement its own stimulus package to help stabilize the global economy.

This time around, the world governments are running out of options. European Union is absolutely in a mess. China is having its own issues. And United States government is in serious debt.

As of tonight, according to Market Ticker, “After being down 634 points today the DOW futures are down 264 more overnight at this point, or approximately 900 points in less than 24 hours.” I cannot predict what’ll happen tomorrow or next week or next month. But ,I do think we have not seen the bottom of this.

What will happen to job market?

Are we going to have hyperinflation?

How will the housing marketing react to recession and hyperinflation?

What should be your strategy for your career and personal finance?

I started this blog exactly three years ago to help people to go through the “depression 2.0”. Well, I have a feeling that I’m about to getting busy again to write about depression 3.0.

That’s okay – let’s get ready together – let’s  follow Warren Buffet’s advice:

“Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful”.

Amazon.com stock is trading at $130.15/share this afternoon. Its P/E ratio is 76.74. Google’s P/E ratio is 36.56. Apple’s P/E ratio is 32.28. Given Amazon’s thin margin, its current stock price is absurd. It’s the kind of number we saw during the last great Internet bubble.

The national unemployment rate is 10.2%. And the broader measure of unemployment rate stands at 17.5%. In the past 30 days, we have seen layoffs from Electronic Art (3,000), United Online (71+), Microsoft (800), RealNetworks (70), Sun (3,000), etc. I’m getting busy again to update GeekMBA360.com Great Depression 2.0 Layoff Tracker. Job creation is absolutely crucial for economic recovery. It’s not getting better at all.

Nouriel Roubini, an economist and NYU professor who correctly predicted the current economic crisis, warned that Mother of Carry Trades Faces an Inevitable Bust. Roubini recently said:

"Eventually there’s going to be an end to this carry trade. When that snapback of the dollar is going occur it’s not going to be 2 percent or 3 percent, it’s going to be more like 25 or 20 percent. And then everybody will have to close their shorts on the dollar, they’ll have to sell these risky assets across the world and you could have this huge asset bubble going into an asset bust." 

Golden Sachs is looking to buy millions of dollars of tax credits from government controlled mortgage giant Fannie Mae. Warren Buffet is joining Goldman in bid for Fannie Mae Tax Credits. So, the taxpayer bailed out the banks. Now, banks are trying to save more money by "bailing out" Fannie Mae, which is controlled by the government. Who is at short end of all of these? Taxpayers.

I don’t want to sound like a pessimist. But, I’m a realist. Our own employment, security, personal finance and family well-being have a lot to do with the overall economic environment.

I want to share with you my concerns. The economic crisis is far from over. It’s not time to relax. Save. Diversify your income. Hold onto your job even if you don’t like it. Prepare for a rainy day.

I wish I’m wrong. But, until then, I’m working my tail off.

Related posts:

• Who are making a lot of money from the economic downturn and where do they get their financial news and analysis?
• How much should I deduct for 401K, HSA, and FSA during recession?
• A great investment book that teaches you how to think
• GeekMBA360.com Publishes How To Become A Product Manager

Excellent resources:

• The New Paradigm for Financial Markets: The Credit Crisis of 2008 and What It Means
• Hot Commodities: How Anyone Can Invest Profitably in the World’s Best Market
• The Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Cures , Revised and Updated

Fareed Zakari of the CNN GPS program interviewed Michael Lewis yesterday. Here is a few quotes of Michael Lewis on our economy:

“I think that we are in for another day of reckoning down the road. I just don’t know when it is.”

“I think that they haven’t even properly evaluated the institutions. They haven’t been honest about what these institutions have on their books. They’ve had phony stress tests.”

“So, we’re in a kind of, I think, right now, in a period where there’s a false sense that it’s over, that the crisis is passed. I don’t think the crisis is passed.”

PLEASE watch this interview.

• Have we seen the bottom of current economic down turn? Are you ready?
• Six ways to identify hidden job opportunities
• What should you do if you cannot find a job?
• Inside look at layoffs + Job Search Strategies
• Entrepreneur calling: ideas, inspirations, and examples
• Watch your Paycheck! — Personal Finance Tips
• Unhappy at work? — Tips on fighting bullies, making transitions, achieve career satisfaction
• Considering going back to business school or law school?

Have we seen the bottom of current economic down turn? Are you prepared?

The stock market has been going up in the past couple of months. But, here at GeekMBA360.com, we continue to be very bearish on the economy and market in the next 6-12 months.

There are four fundamental areas we need to consider with respect to economic recovery:

1. unemployment level
2. stabilization of housing price and reduction of foreclosures
3. government deficit and debt level
4. clean-up of the banking sectors

Very little improvement has made in #1, #2, and #3 above. The stress test and bail-out packages might have helped the banks, but we still have a number of banks that need raise additional capital. Plus, nobody can say for sure that these banks would be fine after they raise the additional capital.

Furthermore, population trend such as baby boomer’s retirement. is not in our favor.

I sincerely hope that I’m wrong, but I think we’re heading into a L-shaped, prolonged period of stagnation.

You need to be prepared:

• continue to be frugal, cut down expenses, and save
• if you’re employed, try to create second or even third source of income by taking on side consulting projects, starting a small business on the side, etc.
• You might want to look into buying a franchise for alternative income
• if you’re unemployed, get a temp job and/or taking on multiple part-time gigs to "stop the bleeding". It’s unlikely that job market will improve. It’ll take time to find a job.
• If you’re geographically flexible, consider moving to areas with better economic prospect. For folks who live in expensive areas such as New York City or the Silicon Valley, consider move to less expensive areas such as Seattle, Denver, or North Carolina.
• The four most promising economies are China, Brazil, Russia and India. Consider learning the languages and move to these countries.
• Watch world economy and market closely. You might want to covert some of your hard-earned cash to gold or commodity. Given the deficit level, US government will need to print a lot more money. There is no way out besides higher taxes and printing more money. Your cash might worth significant less in a few years.
• Exercise, eat healthy, stay fit.

Six ways to identify hidden job opportunities

1. set up Google news alert/Technorati blog alert to closely monitor which companies just received venture capital funding. Contact these companies for job opportunities.
2. apply a job that you’re over-qualified (and you normally wouldn’t apply.) Get the job, and negotiate.
3. make a list of customers you have worked with. Can your skills help them make more money? Make a proposal to these customers and tell them how you can help them to make more money and/or reduce costs. Get paid as a part-time consultant.
4. make a list of partners/suppliers you have worked with. Can your skills help them make more money/reduce costs? Make a proposal and become a consultant for them.
5. Turn your work experience into teaching materials. Get an online teaching gig or teach at your local community college
6. Look into Federal government jobs.

What should you do if you cannot find a job?

1. contact multiple temp agencies and get one or several temp jobs to "stop the bleeding"
2. if you have good credit and have access to a little bit capital, consider purchase a franchise
3. start selling things on eBay and/or Amazon.com marketplace
4. start your own business
5. go back to graduate schools
6. enroll at vacation schools such as cooking school, nursing school, etc.
7. move to a developing country, live cheaply, and teach English. Make sure you pick up the foreign language too!
8. finally, and not lastly, keep looking! Never give up. With persistence, tenacity, and hard work, you’ll get a job!

Inside look at layoffs + Job Search Tips

• Which company offers the best severance package to laid-off employees?
• Why are some companies so secretive about their layoffs?
• Be careful about your performance review this year
• What job applicants can learn from a group of church planters

Entrepreneur calling: ideas, inspirations, and examples

• Are there diamonds in your backyard?
• "My life has been a series of well-orchestrated accidents" — do you need a break from career management?
• Is starting a company in Silicon Valley stupid?
• The Hot Dog Guy
• From ad-free blogger to #1 selling author on Amazon.com
• Is Cafe in the coffee business?
• You must be a lazy man if it takes you ten hours to do a day’s work

Watch Your Paycheck! — Personal Finance Tips:

• Is your paycheck correct?
• Cash, gold and gun?
• Real Estate Options 101 – For the Unemployed
• How much did Dow drop during Great Depression?

Unhappy at work? — Tips on fighting bullies, making transitions, achieve career satisfaction.

• How to deal with bullies at work
• Flow, career satisfaction and happiness
• Career transition from software developer to product manager
• Know enough technically to be dangerous

Considering going back to business school or law school?

• Seven lessons I learned from applying business school while I was unemployed
• Should you apply law school if you are rejected by business school?
• A brief survey of the MBA admission consulting market
• To the Unemployed MBA Applicant: Look for Opportunity and Hedge Your Bets

Read the Previous Editions of this newsletter:

• Feb, 2009 Edition
• December, 2008 Edition

About Depression 2.0 Survival Guide and GeekMBA360.com

Great Depression 2.0 Survival Guide provides hard-hitting, up-to-date, practical strategies, analysis, and tips to help smart and ambitious professionals to survive and beat Depression 2.0. To subscribe to Great Depression 2.0 Survival Guide and receive daily post update, please go to www.GeekMBA360.com to subscribe.

Founded in September, 2008, GeekMBA360.com provides hard-hitting and practical career advice to help the smart and ambitious professionals to Beat Recession, Grow Career, and Build Wealth.

To learn more about GeekMBA360.com, please visit the About Us section of GeekMBA360.com .

Below is a summary of the survey result of Microsoft layoff round II.

Which department did you work for at your former employer?

The layoffs had affected many departments/groups within Microsoft. We’ve received survey responses from folks who worked in Services, Marketing, Research & Development, SMSG, etc.

How many days of advance notice did you get from the employer regarding the layoff?

Almost every survey respondent reported that he/she was given 5 days of advance notice.

What’s your severance package? (Salary, Medical, etc.)

• The "standard package" is 2 weeks for every 6 months of employment at Microsoft, 100% COBRA coverage for 1 week per 6 months employed
• Microsoft requires laid off employees sign an egregious severance agreement that limits their rights to due process and free speech. 
• 80% of bonus at standard level. 
• Vacation pay cashed out.

What’s the reason you were given for getting laid off?

Everyone was given the reason "position was eliminated" or "position no longer required/needed".

What do you think is the real reason that you got laid off?

• MS has a rating called “professional in place” – meaning you may be very good at what you do, but you’re not on track for the next level. I know that I had that rating last year. 
• I held a lot of stock options that were a liability to the company (even though they were under water).
• I am not an H-1b or L-1 visa holder. Three  L-1 visa holders on my team in in the USA less than 6 months still have their jobs.  The American citizen over 50 was laid off and less qualified guest workers were retained.
• It is easier to cut entire groups than to re-align performers into new roles.
• I was a recent transfer, so it was the easy choice.
• politics; age; use of medical benefits; politics

Please rate how your former employer communicated the layoff?

40% of the respondents gave a rating of Bad, while 60% gave a rating of "Terrible".

Please rate your former employer’s management

40% of the respondent gave a rating of Bad, while 60% gave a rating of "Terrible". 

Please rate your severance package

On average, people rates the severance package "Fair".

What were your top frustrations working at your former employer?

• Ridiculous bureaucracy making it difficult/impossible to do my job.
• The bureaucratic, meddling and useless middle management is strangling any true innovation or quick time to market products.
• Any idea sailed up the management chain gets 100 different fingers in it, bundled into "platforms" or cross-product "synergies" and en route it is modified exponentially from its concept. 
• Senior leadership running the company without a rudder. lack of management accountability
• Age and citizenship discrimination.

What feedback do you have for your previous employer?

• Get rid of Senior Management that has failed to provide direction and failed to deliver year after year. 
• Corporate Greed. Corporate Greed. Corporate Greed.   
• No ethics. Microsoft needs a culling. The problem is, the area that need the culling is the one making the cut decisions. Until someone brave enough wades through the middle layers of Microsoft’s organizations with a machete, the current cuts will at best slow down actual work and at worst derail and demoralize what could have been effective market plays. Get someone who can show leadership to run the company. fire Ballmer; concentrate on core businesses; integrate the corporate values at every level of the company

Any words of wisdom/suggestions you want to share with fellow hard-working professionals who’re concerned about layoffs?

• I urge AMERICAN citizens to write their elected official and INSIST their elected officials pass Senator Durbin’s H-1B and L-1 Visa Fraud and Abuse Act.   Senator Durbin’s bill change today’s H-1B and L-1 laws that allow employers to layoff American citizens and GC holders and replace them with L-1 and H-1b. Corporate Visa laws are broken and urgently need to change to protect the American Professional middle class. 
• When management is hell bent on secrecy, no vision or ability to articulate strategy … Nobody is safe. Everyone from the best performer to the worst is on the chopping block equally. it’s not the end of the world.
• This is not the end of world. There is a lot of opportunities outside Microsoft.
• Treat layoff as an opportunity to explore
• Get your personal finance in order!!!

Related posts:

• Microsoft Laid-off Employees spoke up! — Layoff Satisfaction Survey Results – Microsoft
• Layoff Satisfaction Survey Results — Sun Microsystems
• Layoff Satisfaction Survey Results — AT&T
• Eight Tips for job hunting in a difficult economic environment
• What is the most effective way to network?
• How a house cleaner finds new opportunity to beat recession
• 10 Professional Development Actions that you can take to make you more competitive in today’s job market
• Who are making a lot of money from the economic downturn and where do they get their financial news and analysis?

Excellent resources:

• The Job Search Solution: The Ultimate System for Finding a Great Job Now!
• Guerrilla Marketing for Job Hunters: 400 Unconventional Tips, Tricks, and Tactics for Landing Your Dream Job
• The Pathfinder: How to Choose or Change Your Career for a Lifetime of Satisfaction and Success

I’m not shorting any stock. So, I’m not negatively affected by the upward movement of the stock market. But, I’m very concerned about the long-term health of the U.S. economy. We’ve been feeling deep economic pain. We’ve taken some pain killers that temporarily reduced the pain. But, the serious illness is still there. The root cause is not cured at all.

It is not my intention to start a government conspiracy theory here. From political standpoint, wouldn’t it be better for the government to have a U-shaped stagnation than having V-shaped recovery?

Think about it — if we choose to have a v-shaped recovery, we would have taken the bitter medicine, which means we’d let the banks and auto companies fail, and have possibly Great Depression 2.0. More people will suffer, but the recovery would be faster.

Politically, it’s just not feasible. Politicians care about votes and elections. More and more, I think we’ll have a period of stagnation that is similar to Japan’s "lost decade". It’s time to plan career and business strategy accordingly.

Full disclosure: I’m neither republican nor democrat. I voted for Barack Obama in the last election.

Related posts:

• Cash, gold and gun?
• Why I don’t trade stocks
• Real Estate Options 101 – For the Unemployed

Excellent resources:

• A Failure of Capitalism: The Crisis of ’08 and the Descent into Depression
• Fool’s Gold: How the Bold Dream of a Small Tribe at J.P. Morgan Was Corrupted by Wall Street Greed and Unleashed a Catastrophe
• Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy, and Why It Matters for Global Capitalism

• I don’t have interest/passion in tracking individual stocks. I’d rather spend time doing other things I enjoy doing.
• I want to have a good night of sleep every night. I don’t want to spend time worrying about my investment.
• In my opinion, stock trading doesn’t create any real value. I want to become wealthy by creating real values. I believe that one major cause of our current financial mess is that we’ve too many bankers, and too few builders. I like to succeed the old fashion way by working hard, working smart, helping others, and creating values.
• I believe stock market is NOT efficient. Some people have information advantage over others.
• I understand that it’s very hard to beat the market if I have to pay extra fees to personal financial advisors and fund managements.
• I agree with Mark Cuban — Stock Market is for Suckers.
• I respect and admire John Bogle. I believe in his philosophy of index investing. Following his advice in The Little Book of Common Sense Investing: The Only Way to Guarantee Your Fair Share of Stock Market Returns (Little Books. Big Profits), The Bogleheads’ Guide to Investing, and Enough: True Measures of Money, Business, and Life, I earned positive returns for my 401K in 2008 while most people I know lost 40% or more in their 401K accounts.

Let me challenge you: assume you’ll hold onto your current job for the next 12 months, can you double your take-home pay in 12 months by your own effort?

If you have always dreamed to be an entrepreneur, this will test your ability to generate cash flow in a short period of time.

If you’re concerned about your job security, this will challenge you to generate a second source of income and protect you from layoffs.

If you’re tired of your current job/career/work environment, this will challenge you to create a viable source of income and a job for yourself.

Write down the total amount of take-home pay for the next 12 months. Your goal is to double that amount by working on your own side projects.

Is anyone up to challenge?

Excellent resources:

• Getting Everything You Can Out of All You’ve Got: 21 Ways You Can Out-Think, Out-Perform, and Out-Earn the Competition
• How to Make Millions with Your Ideas: An Entrepreneur’s Guide
• The E-Myth Revisited: Why Most Small Businesses Don’t Work and What to Do About It
• The Art of the Start: The Time-Tested, Battle-Hardened Guide for Anyone Starting Anything